For some years now, I've been wondering if economic statistics reflect reality. At least, reality as experienced by business managers and households. I am concluding that it is increasingly difficult to assume that they do.
I'm in the process of publishing an article entitled "The New Normal", in which I argue that government-produced statistics on GDP, inflation and a range of other indicators may increasingly reflect government activity rather than real economic activity.
The case study for this is Cyprus, a relatively small economy where measuring inputs and outputs should be relatively easy. On 17 October 2022, I'll be doing a first presentation of some observations, in a very brief format, at the Best Invest Cyprus Conference. I will also be uploading the full article hopefully by the end of October 2022.
An intro to The New Normal is here. I'll post more later.